Don't believe the hype about a sudden wave of harmony among world leaders. When Donald Trump strutted into the G7 summit in Evian-les-Bains and jokingly announced "I'm the boss" to a room of European heads of state, it wasn't just typical bravado. It marked a massive, unexpected shift in how Washington is dealing with Vladimir Putin.
For years, Europe feared Trump would force Ukraine into a bad peace deal. Yet, the summit ended with a unified front that seemed impossible just a week ago. The U.S. is now planning to snap back heavy oil sanctions on Moscow, and Trump is openly telling Putin that Russia "should make a deal" because they are bleeding troops on the battlefield.
This isn't a sudden burst of idealistic support for Kyiv from the White House. It's raw geopolitics, driven by a newly signed ceasefire in the Middle East and a harsh look at Russia’s true military weakness.
The Rearview Mirror Effect
You can't understand Trump's sudden pivot on Russia without looking at Iran. For the past 3.5 months, Washington was utterly consumed by a bruising war in the Persian Gulf. To keep global oil prices from spiking out of control during that conflict, the Trump administration did something that infuriated Europe. They temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian oil exports.
Putin used that financial lifeline to shore up his wartime budget. But the ground shifted right before the summit.
The U.S. brokered a 60-day ceasefire deal with Tehran, effectively putting the Iran war into what Trump calls the "rearview mirror." With oil flowing freely through the Strait of Hormuz again, the economic shield protecting Russia just vanished. Trump made it clear in France that the free pass is over. "Soon we'll be able to do that because the oil is now flowing," he told reporters when pressed on tightening the screws back on Moscow.
How Europe Flipped the Script
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and European hosts like Emmanuel Macron knew they had a narrow window to reshape Trump’s perspective. Their strategy didn't rely on emotional appeals. They used the only language Trump respects: leverage and winning.
Zelensky came to the French alpine resort armed with battlefield data to prove a specific point. Ukraine isn't losing, and Russia has completely lost the strategic initiative.
During a tight, 75-minute session, European leaders pounded home the reality of Russia's staggering attrition rate. It worked. German officials noted that Trump visibly acknowledged Russia is in a much weaker position than previously thought. Trump himself later lamented the carnage, pointing out that Moscow is losing roughly 25,000 young soldiers every single month. "They go to this front and get blown up," Trump said. "The whole thing is ridiculous."
By showing Trump that Putin is operating from a position of weakness, the G7 managed to align the U.S. president with their agenda. The summit's joint statement called on nations to aggressively increase the delivery of air defense capacities, long-range systems, and interceptors to Kyiv.
The Push for an American Summit
Now that Trump is re-engaged, European diplomats are moving fast to lock down the next steps before winter sets in. The goal isn't just to send more Patriot missiles. It is to force Putin to the negotiating table on Western terms.
Macron, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz are heavily pushing a proposal for Trump to host direct peace talks between Zelensky and Putin in the United States.
The strategy behind an American-hosted summit is clear:
- It appeals directly to Trump's desire to be seen as the ultimate global peacemaker.
- It positions the U.S. and Europe as active mediators at the table, preventing Russia from dictating unilateral terms.
- It uses Ukraine's current military and economic stability to negotiate from a position of maximum strength.
The hurdles are still massive. Trump still holds a somewhat transactional view of the conflict and openly talks about his desire to eventually lift economic sanctions to pursue grand infrastructure projects, like a hypothetical tunnel connecting Alaska and Siberia. He also still strongly opposes Ukraine joining NATO.
But for now, the fears of a fractured West have faded. The UK just announced sweeping new sanctions targeting the "shadow fleet" Russia uses to smuggle LNG out of its Arctic projects, and the EU is finalizing its 21st sanctions package.
The ultimate takeaway from Evian isn't that Trump suddenly fell in love with multilateral diplomacy. It is that he realized Putin is in trouble, the oil markets are stable enough to absorb a shock, and there is a massive legacy win on the table for whoever forces an end to the largest land war in Europe since 1945.
What Happens Next
Watch the oil markets over the next two weeks. If the White House follows through on its threat to cancel the Russian oil waivers, global supply will tighten, but Moscow's primary funding mechanism will take a direct hit. Simultaneously, keep a close eye on U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Trump confirmed they are scheduled to fly back to Russia in the near future. Their arrival in Moscow will be the first real indicator of whether Putin is ready to talk, or if the war will drag into another brutal winter.
